NMI® at 57.1%; June 2020 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On

|Jul 6|magazine66 min read

Business Activity Index at 66.0%; New Orders Index at 61.6%; Employment Index at 43.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 57.5%

TEMPE, Arizona, July 6, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June after two consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 57.1 percent, 11.7 percentage points higher than the May reading of 45.4 percent. This reading represents growth in the non-manufacturing sector after a two-month period of contraction preceded by 122 straight months of expansion. This is the largest single-month percentage-point increase in the NMI® since its debut in 1997. (In April, the index suffered its biggest one-month decrease, a 10.7-percent drop.) The Business Activity Index registered 66 percent, up 25 percentage points from May's figure of 41 percent. The New Orders Index registered 61.6 percent; 19.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 41.9 percent in May. The Employment Index increased to 43.1 percent; 11.3 percentage points higher than the May reading of 31.8 percent.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered at 57.5 percent, down 9.5 percentage points from May's reading of 67 percent. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases. The higher index readings the previous three months were primarily a product of supply problems related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The Supplier Deliveries Index now more closely correlates to current supply and demand.

"The Prices Index figure of 62.4 percent is 6.8 percentage points higher than the May reading of 55.6 percent, indicating that prices increased in June. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing composite index indicated growth after two consecutive months of contraction. The sector's previous period of contraction was for two months in 2009: November (with an NMI® of 49.5 percent) and December (with an NMI® of 49.7 percent). Respondents remain concerned about the coronavirus and the more recent civil unrest; however, they are cautiously optimistic about business conditions and the economy as businesses are beginning to reopen," says Nieves.

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 14 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in June — listed in order —  are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Retail Trade; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in June are: Mining; Other Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • "Businesses are starting to reopen and the economy seems to be on the road to recovery, but let's not get too complacent, [as] COVID-19 is still a pandemic, [and] a vaccine has not been developed. Economics is the reason for the push for businesses to reopen. Utmost care and awareness still needs to be cautiously and religiously followed." (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • "Surprising recovery to sales volume over the past four weeks." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • "Sales have picked up tremendously. Sporadic supply issues. Biggest concern for us is lumber shortages." (Construction)
  • "We are a public higher-education institution. We are expecting budget cuts for fiscal year 2021. Our biggest concern is COVID-19. The plan for a vast majority of higher education institutions is to have students on campus and blend of face-to-face and online classes. However, if students do not effectively social distance, then we could see a dramatic increase in COVID-19 and campuses forced to move to online classes. This will be a major financial blow to revenue for all universities (athletic events, vending, parking, housing, and the like)." (Educational Services)
  • "We continue to all work from home globally. Strict restriction on travel and external events. Senior management focusing on a plan for returning to the office." (Finance & Insurance)
  • "COVID-19 has affected us, of course — obtaining PPE supplies has been our focus. Overall census has been very low. Operating rooms, rehab clinics and physician practices were closed or working fewer hours but have since opened back up." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Advertisers are starting to place more advertisements and the media business is turning around. Generally, we are at the end of the employee furloughs and layoffs. Our work efforts have been focused on navigating COVID-19. We are now shifting to value-add projects. We are cautiously optimistic, although as we get closer to the presidential election, we are on guard of unprecedented civil and social unrest." (Information)
  • "Activity level is holding steady, with the potential of a rebound in the near future." (Mining)
  • "We have seen an overall reduction in our business as a result of COVID-19, with the greatest reduction in the aviation and oil and gas industries. In contrast, the pharmaceutical industry has seen an increase in business during the same time frame." (Other Services)
  • "COVID-19 and the riots have disrupted the normal flow of business. There is no new normal yet." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)

 

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*

June 2020

Index

Non-Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Series
Index

Jun

Series
Index

May

Percent
Point
Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend**

(Months)

Series
Index

Jun

Series
Index

May

Percent
Point
Change

NMI®/PMI®

57.1

45.4

+11.7

Growing

From Contracting

1

52.6

43.1

+9.5

Business Activity/

Production

66.0

41.0

+25.0

Growing

From Contracting

1

57.3

33.2

+24.1

New Orders

61.6

41.9

+19.7

Growing

From Contracting

1

56.4

31.8

+24.6

Employment

43.1

31.8

+11.3

Contracting

Slower

4

42.1

32.1

+10.0

Supplier Deliveries

57.5

67.0

-9.5

Slowing

Slower

13

56.9

68.0

-11.1

Inventories

60.7

48.0

+12.7

Growing

From Contracting

1

50.5

50.4

+0.1

Prices

62.4

55.6

+6.8

Increasing

Faster

3

51.3

40.8

+10.5

Backlog of Orders

51.9

46.4

+5.5

Growing

From Contracting

1

45.3

38.2

+7.1

New Export Orders

58.9

41.5

+17.4

Growing

From Contracting

1

47.6

39.5

+8.1

Imports

52.9

43.7

+9.2

Growing

From Contracting

1

48.8

41.3

+7.5

Inventory Sentiment

55.9

55.1

+0.8

Too High

Faster

3

N/A

N/A

N/A

Customers'Inventories

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

44.6

46.2

-1.6

Overall Economy

Growing

From Contracting

1


Non-Manufacturing Sector

Growing

From Contracting

1


*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Beef (2); Chicken; Cleaning Products (4); Computer Equipment; Diesel Fuel*; Disinfectants (3); Fuel*: Hand Sanitizer (4); Janitorial Supplies (3); Lumber Products (2); Medical Supplies (5); N95 Masks (2); Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)* (5); PPE — Coveralls (2); PPE — Gloves (4); PPE — Gowns (4); PPE — Masks* (4); Pork; Proteins; and Transportation.

Commodities Down in Price
Cheese (3); Diesel Fuel* (6); Fuel* (4); Natural Gas (2); Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)*; PPE — Masks*; and Steel Products (4).

Commodities in Short Supply
Cleaning Products (4); Cleaning Supplies (4); COVID-19 Testing Kits; Disinfectants (4); Disinfectant Wipes (2); Hand Sanitizer (4); Janitorial Supplies (3); Labor; Labor – Construction; Labor – Subcontractors; Medical Equipment (2); Medical Supplies (5); Nasal Swabs (3); N95 Masks (4); Nitrile Gloves; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) (5); PPE — Coveralls (4); PPE — Gloves (3); PPE — Gowns (3); PPE — Masks (4); Safety Equipment (3); Sanitary Supplies (3); Shoe Covers; Swabs (2); and Wipes.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

JUNE 2020 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI®
In June, the NMI® registered 57.1 percent, 11.7 percentage points higher than May's figure of 45.4 percent. The reading indicates non-manufacturing sector grew after two consecutive months of contraction and 122 months of growth before that. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI® above 48.5 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the June NMI® indicates expansion for the first time since March, Nieves says, "The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for June (57.1 percent) corresponds to a 2.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

NMI® HISTORY

Month

NMI®

Month

NMI®

Jun 2020

57.1

Dec 2019

54.9

May 2020

45.4

Nov 2019

53.9

Apr 2020

41.8

Oct 2019

54.4

Mar 2020

52.5

Sep 2019

53.5

Feb 2020

57.3

Aug 2019

56.0

Jan 2020

55.5

Jul 2019

54.8

Average for 12 months – 53.1

High – 57.3

Low – 41.8

Business Activity
ISM®'s Business Activity Index registered 66 percent in June, an increase of 25 percentage points from the May reading of 41 percent. This represents growth after three consecutive months of contraction. Two months after Business Activity fell 22 percentage points in April, the index recorded its largest-ever single-month increase. Comments from respondents include: "The easing of restrictions of movement of people both in the U.S. and abroad has led to an increase in business" and "Slow reopening for elective procedures."

The 15 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of June — listed in order —  are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Utilities; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Information; and Public Administration. The only industry reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of June is Other Services.

Business Activity

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

50.1

31.3

18.6

66.0

May 2020

29.3

27.7

43.0

41.0

Apr 2020

20.9

15.1

64.0

26.0

Mar 2020

26.3

43.1

30.6

48.0

New Orders
ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 61.6 percent, an increase of 19.7 percentage points from the May reading of 41.9 percent. New orders grew after two months of contraction that were preceded by 128 months of expansion. The index increased 19.7 percentage points, two months after a 20-point decrease in April. Comments from respondents include: "Customers releasing work orders" and "More activity due to lifting of restrictions."

The 15 industries reporting growth of new orders in June — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Utilities; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; and Public Administration. The only industry reporting contraction in June is Other Services.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

47.3

33.7

19.0

61.6

May 2020

28.1

29.3

42.7

41.9

Apr 2020

26.7

17.4

55.9

32.9

Mar 2020

30.4

45.6

23.9

52.9

Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth month in a row following 72 consecutive months of growth. ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 43.1 percent, up 11.3 percentage points from the May reading of 31.8 percent. This month's increase is a partial rebound from a 17-percentage point decrease in April. Comments from respondents include: "We have a hiring freeze but also a no-layoff policy during the crisis; reductions are due to natural attrition" and "Furloughs reduced."

The three industries reporting an increase in employment in June are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; and Construction. The 11 industries that reported a reduction in employment in June — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; and Finance & Insurance.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

16.1

58.8

25.1

43.1

May 2020

6.9

52.1

41.1

31.8

Apr 2020

5.8

47.6

46.6

30.0

Mar 2020

8.9

76.3

14.7

47.0

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.5 percent, which is 9.5 percentage points lower than the 67 percent reported in May. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Delivery delays appear to have largely shaken out, and most products are becoming readily available with normal lead/shipping times" and "Supplier deliveries have begun to get back to normal."

The 13 industries reporting slower deliveries in June — listed in order — are: Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; and Finance & Insurance. No industry reported faster supplier deliveries in June.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Index

Jun 2020

26.2

62.6

11.2

57.5

May 2020

40.6

52.7

6.7

67.0

Apr 2020

58.3

39.9

1.8

78.3

Mar 2020

31.3

61.6

7.1

62.1

Inventories
The Inventories Index expanded in June, registering 60.7 percent, a 12.7-percentage point increase from the 48 percent reported in May. Of the total respondents in June, 34 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. The index returned to growth after a three-month contraction that began with a 12.4-percentage point decrease in March. Comments from respondents include: "Higher safety stock" and "Inventories were previously too low."

The 10 industries reporting an increase in inventories in June — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting a decrease in inventories in June are: Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Construction; and Information.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

37.7

45.9

16.4

60.7

May 2020

28.9

38.2

32.9

48.0

Apr 2020

29.1

35.6

35.3

46.9

Mar 2020

20.2

42.8

37.1

41.5

Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services increased in June, with the index registering 62.4 percent. This is 6.8 percentage points higher than the 55.6 percent reported in May and the largest increase since August 2012, when the index grew by 7 points.

The 14 non-manufacturing industries that reported an increase in prices paid during the month of June — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; and Construction. The three industries that reported a decrease in prices in June are: Retail Trade; Mining; and Information.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

34.6

56.8

8.6

62.4

May 2020

29.6

57.3

13.1

55.6

Apr 2020

31.3

52.3

16.3

55.1

Mar 2020

18.0

67.9

14.1

50.0

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
ISM®'s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in June after two consecutive months of contraction. The index registered 51.9 percent; 5.5 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent reported in May. Of the total respondents in June, 46 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The six industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in June — listed in order — are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Public Administration; and Information. The eight industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in June — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Other Services; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services.

Backlog of Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

18.1

67.5

14.4

51.9

May 2020

24.6

43.7

31.7

46.4

Apr 2020

30.1

35.1

34.7

47.7

Mar 2020

22.5

65.1

12.4

55.0

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in June after three consecutive months of contraction. The New Export Orders Index registered 58.9 percent in June, which is 17.4 percentage points higher than the 41.5 percent reported in May. This is the index's largest one-month increase since its inception in 1997. Of the total respondents in June, 73.6 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The seven industries reporting an increase in new export orders in June — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Construction; and Information. The seven industries that reported a decrease in exports in June — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Other Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Export Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

35.8

46.2

18.0

58.9

May 2020

13.5

56.0

30.6

41.5

Apr 2020

18.1

36.4

45.5

36.3

Mar 2020

7.8

76.3

15.9

45.9

Imports
The Imports Index grew for the first time in four months, as the index registered 52.9 percent in June, 9.2 percentage points higher than May's figure of 43.7 percent. Sixty-four percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of June — listed in order — are: Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries that reported a decrease in imports in June are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Transportation & Warehousing. Nine industries reported no change in imports in June.

Imports

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2020

17.8

70.2

12.0

52.9

May 2020

16.5

54.3

29.2

43.7

Apr 2020

26.4

45.8

27.8

49.3

Mar 2020

5.2

69.9

24.9

40.2

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM® Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in June registered 55.9 percent, which is 0.8 percentage point higher than the 55.1-percent reading in May. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are too high.

The 11 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in June — listed in order — are:  Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Information; and Utilities. The six industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in June — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Inventory
Sentiment

%Too

High

%About
Right

%Too

Low

Index

Jun 2020

26.3

59.2

14.5

55.9

May 2020

24.0

62.2

13.8

55.1

Apr 2020

39.9

45.3

14.8

62.6

Mar 2020

18.0

59.6

22.4

47.8

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of June 2020.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI® above 48.5 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.5 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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Contact:

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ISM®, ROB/Research Manager


Tempe, Arizona 


+1 480.455.5910


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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management