CRU's Bold Calls on China Stimulus Were Right

|May 26|magazine5 min read

LONDON, May 26, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The 22nd May marked the first day of China's 2020 National People's Congress. The overall message from this meeting was to achieve macroeconomic stability following COVID-19.

Premier Li Keqiang announced a stimulus package worth 6% of GDP or RMB6 tn ($840 bn). No GDP growth target was announced for 2020. Markets were disappointed. In contrast, the package is bang in line with our expectations. We see it as net positive news for the economy and commodities markets in 2020.

A target for unemployment but not for GDP growth

  • What we expected: No growth target. Employment of primary concern.
  • Announced: No growth target. Aim to create more than 9 million urban jobs, and target for the urban registered unemployment rate at 5.5%.

As expected, China's government decided not to set a target for GDP growth in 2020. They justified this with respect to the high uncertainty in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis. They confirmed their focus on maintaining employment, people's livelihood, and intentions to eliminate poverty among all rural residents.

Fiscal stimulus of 6% of GDP

  • What we expected: Fiscal stimulus of 5-8%.
  • Announced: Fiscal stimulus of 6%.

Read the full story:
https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/2020/cru-s-bold-calls-on-china-stimulus-were-right/ 

Read more about CRU: http://bit.ly/About_CRU

About CRU

CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.

Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.

CRU employs over 280 experts and has more than 11 offices around the world, in Europe, the Americas, China, Asia and Australia – our office in Beijing opened in 2004 and Singapore in 2018.

When facing critical business decisions, you can rely on our first-hand knowledge to give you a complete view of a commodity market. And you can engage with our experts directly, for the full picture and a personalised response.

CRU – big enough to deliver a high-quality service, small enough to care about all of our customers.

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